The incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM), and most notably type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), which accounts for 90–95% of all DM cases, is growing rapidly on a global scale, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The company’s latest report: ‘Global Diabetes Drugs Market to 2023 – A Diversifying Treatment Landscape as GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and SGLT-2 Inhibitors Gain Ground Following Landmark Cardiac Outcomes’ reveals that the US is expected to experience the greatest rise in T2DM prevalence, and incidence rates are also expected to increase from 2.5% in 2016 to 4% by 2023.
The DM market has undergone a dynamic shift over the past decade, primarily due to the entry of three new non-insulin drug classes for T2DM: glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and sodium–glucose linked transporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors. Increased market diversification is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due to patent expiries for major insulin products and increased uptake of non-insulin drugs.
Oliver Mundell, Healthcare Analyst at GBI Research, commented: ‘In 2016, the top five products, all of which are insulin products, commanded 47% of the market by sales. By 2023 the top 10 products are expected to occupy 42% market share, many of which will be non-insulin products.’
Alongside rising prevalence, market diversification will be a key driver of growth, with the DM market projected to increase from $97.4 billion in 2016 to $158.8 billion in 2023, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.2%.
Mundell continued: ‘Competition will intensify over the forecast period as more companies enter the DM market space. However, Novo Nordisk, which is currently the leading player in terms of market share, is expected to maintain its position throughout the forecast period.
Despite declining revenues for high-grossing products such as Levemir (insulin detemir), more recent market additions such as Tresiba (insulin degludec), as well as the upcoming pipeline products semaglutide and oral semaglutide, are expected to more than compensate.
Mundell added: ‘The development of extremely long release insulin products and a fully artificial pancreas using both insulin and glucagon will shape the future of the DM market beyond the forecast period as ease of administration and safety is increased.’